The frost damage on the night between April 26th and April 27th was devestating for many vignerons and it will seriously influence the 2016 vintage especially quantity wise.
As the photo below from Chassagne shows … there is still hope for the 2016 vintage even in the worst affected areas.
Photo: Caroline Lestimé of Domaine Jean-Noël Gagnard
The official numbers
The official numbers from La Confédération des Appellations et des Vignerons de Bourgogne says it all … 23% of the vignerons expect more than 70% loss of grapes due to the frost, another 23% expect loss between 31% and 70%, and then the residual 54% of the vignerons expect damage between 0% and 30%.
These are rough numbers, as its still difficult to evaluate the precise damage, but it shows that one out of four vignerons have very serious damage and will really suffer financially. And the same more or less goes for those who lost 31 – 70% … they will also see a dramatic decrease in the revenues from the 2016 vintage.
So this is serious .. very serious … and it’s the worst damage caused by frost in 35 years … as the 1981 vintage was the last vintage hit by frost damage of this magnitude. The areas with the highest damage seem to be Marsannay and Chassagne – according to the survey made by La Confédération des Appellations et des Vignerons de Bourgogne.
It’s important to notice that some have suffered loss of much more than 70% … some vignerons have lost perhaps 90% of the crop … and in some cases after suffering hail damage in the previous vintages.
The hope of recorvery … and long term damage?
In general nature is both hard and unforgiving … but also generous and capable of sometimes miraculous recovery.
From my knowledge and the talks with different vignerons – the hope of some recovery with a secondary generation of new buds is still there.
The general rule is – as I understand it – is the further in the development the vine is – when hit by the frost – the lesser chances there are for recovery .. i.e. secondary buds.
If this is the case then the chances of recovery are best in Cote de Nuits as the vines in Cote de Beaune normally are more advanced in the development of buds – as was apparantly also the case in 2016.
Chances for recovery are also better for the Pinot Noir as the Chardonney vines are more advanced in the development.
So there are still chances of recovery in most areas – depending on the viticulture and the degree of damage and how low the temperature dropped (and for how long).
The concequences for the consumers
The production of wine in Burgundy have been somewhat limited over the last years, with a number of rather small vintages … so there is to some degree a shortage of wines in the marketplace – or at least in the cellers of the vignerons.
So expecting something like a 30 – 40% lower quantity in 2016 will push the prices upwards. Some 2014s are already on the market – prices from the vignerons are fixed – but I’m sure the prices on the 2015 will be influenced by the expected low quantities in 2016.
The drop in quantity will be worst for the whites it seems, but also in the northern appellations of Cote de Nuits – Gevrey-Chambertin especially – some producers will be likely to raise the prices of the 2015 to somehow compensate for the expected loss in 2016.
It is however very early .. as nature can still do miracles .. or cause more devestation .. as seen in the previous years with the hail storms.
The frost damage caught the Burgundians by surprise this time … as it was many years since the last severe frost damage – but I’m sure the vignerons will take measures to ensure they can minimize the damage – if a similar situation occurs in the future. In Chablis they tried to prevent frost damage by burning cans of inflamable fluid in the vineyard – see photo below.
Photo: Aurelién Ibanez
Given the prices on Burgundy these days … the top produces might establish systems to monitor the temperature in varios places in the vineyards, to see where the problem will first appear.